Emergency Management

Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Maria were both “best case scenarios”

We have always had hurricanes. We always will. In one very important way, Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Maria were both best case scenarios. Prior to Hurricane Katrina hitting New Orleans in 2005, we knew that the levy system was only built to handle a category 3 hurricane. And prior to Hurricane Maria hitting Puerto Rico, we knew that the electric grid there was in dire straights.

These two disasters had two things in common: 1) a preexisting neglect of the critical infrastructure which contributed to the extent of the disaster, and 2) we have always had hurricanes and we always will.

But why am I saying that these two horrible tragedies were best case scenarios? They also have one thing in common with every other natural and man-made disaster in U.S. history: They were regional events and massive resources were available to be brought in to the “disaster area.” We can bring in utility trucks from unaffected areas. We can fly or truck in water from unaffected areas. We can debate whether the local, state or federal response was adequate, or efficient – but there was a response. There were outside resources available.

But what if there were not “unaffected areas”? What if there was a national-scale disaster, specifically, the loss of substantially the entire U.S. power grid for an extended period of time? Congress has been talking about this possibility for years. There are reams of hearings and federal reports discussing the possibility of just such a national scale disaster. Possibilities include cyber-attack, solar flares, pandemic, an EMP weapon, a coordinated terrorist attack on key transformers and many other threats.

If there were no unaffected areas from which to draw outside resources, who would come to rescue us? The U.S. is woefully unprepared for such an event. Should such an event occur, the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security said that 90% of the U.S. population could perish. And yet, Congress has not acted to protect the critical infrastructures.

Again, just like Katrina and Maria, there is a preexisting problem with the infrastructure that we know about. But unlike all other previous disasters, in this scenario, there would be no outside resources from elsewhere in the U.S. Cities, towns and families will be on their own. The cavalry will not be coming.

Our emergency management system depends on the ability to bring in outside resources when the event overwhelms local capabilities. Federal, state and local governments do not drill for this. There is no government plan to respond to this type of event. There is no legislation requiring that the grid be hardened against these known threats.

Maybe there is little that you and I can do to change this.

But what we can do is prepare our communities to be more self-reliant. What we can do is work with our local communities to plan for an event where the community must fend for itself for an extended period of time.

The most dangerous mindset in the U.S. is that somebody will come and rescue us; that a disaster is FEMA’s problem, not ours. Best case scenarios are regional disasters where help is on the way. In a worst case scenario, nobody will be coming for a very long time. Your community needs a plan.

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Blackout: What we learn from electric grid failures

 

 

BlackoutWhat we learn from history is that we do not learn from history

 

I’ve always loved this quote from Benjamin Disraeli. But it occurs to me that perhaps what is more dangerous than not learning from history, is learning from history.

What most Americans have learned from their experiences with blackouts is quite dangerous: Our collective experience with blackouts is that they are temporary. The power will be back in a few hours (or days, at most) so all we need to do is wait it out. The power company will rescue us.

Maybe some of us are even “prepared” for a blackout and have a generator and some gas. Maybe we have 72 hours worth of canned food stored away like FEMA  tells us. Even in the Emergency Management world, every exercise comes to an end. Every hurricane comes to an end. Every blackout comes to an end. Moreover, we have the “edge effect” where there are always resources available from outside the blackout area to assist us until the power comes back.

We are complacent. “Blackouts are temporary” we think.Blackout

But what if the power went off and did not come back for a year? While Congress has studied – and failed to act – on this scenario for years, more and more people in Emergency Management are thinking about a long-term blackout scenario.

There have been several recent articles of note, including an article in Fire Engineering by Ken Chrosniak: Electric Power Blackout: The Power of One. Another good article to read is by Garrison Wells published by Emergency Management Magazine: Threat of Massive Grid Shutdown Increasing in Face of Disasters. If you are an emergency manager, you really need to read these articles: You and your jurisdiction are not prepared for a long-term blackout. And more recently, Eric Holdeman has blogged about electromagnetic pulse in Emergency Management Magazine online.

There can be no serious debate that our electric grid is vulnerable to a number of things, from terrorist attack, electromagnetic pulse weapon, solar flare to a good old fashion ice storm or errant tree branch. While a long-term failure is considered by some to be a remote possibility, the possibility is frightening. And now there is evidence that both Iran and North Korea are actively pursuing electromagnetic pulse weapons with the specific purpose of taking down the U.S. electric grid.

Does anybody out there really think that they wouldn’t do it? U.S. “retaliation” means little to either country. Taking out “the great Satan” (in Iran’s case) would be worth whatever we sent back – so our usual deterrent strategy is not helpful here.  There is an excellent article about this in the Washington Times by R. James Woolsey and Peter Vincent Pry: “When Iran goes nuclear: Failure to protect the nation would amount to dereliction of duty“.

In fact William R. Graham, Chairman of the congressionally chartered Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack noted in 2008 that:

BlackoutElectrical power is necessary to support other critical infrastructures, including supply and distribution of water, food, fuel, communications, transport, financial transactions, emergency services, government services, and all other infrastructures supporting the national economy and welfare. Should significant parts of the electrical power infrastructure be lost for any substantial period of time, the Commission believes that the consequences are likely to be catastrophic, and many people may ultimately die for lack of the basic elements necessary to sustain life in dense urban and suburban communities. In fact, the Commission is deeply concerned that such impacts are likely in the event of an EMP attack unless practical steps are taken to provide protection for critical elements of the electric system and for rapid restoration of electric power, particularly to essential services.

Okay. Even if there was a massive grid outage, somebody would rescue us, right? Wrong. The United States is completely unprepared. The sad thing is, we don’t have to be. Even if Congress fails to act, individual communities can do much to prepare for and mitigate such a scenario.

So, one of the most dangerous things we have learned from history is that blackouts are temporary events lasting hours or at most a few days. We are completely unprepared for a long-term national scale blackout. Until we start thinking about it, the lives of millions of Americans remain in peril. 9/11would just a minor incident on the scale compared to what a long-term national power outage would be.

But, it can start in your community. FEMA won’t be there to rescue us in a long-term national blackout. We will have to rescue ourselves.

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A compilation of news reports on the 2003 Northeast Blackout

References:

New York Times, November 11, 2013: The Blackout That Exposed the Flaws in the Grid

New York Times, August 15, 2003: The Blackout of 2003: The Overview; Power Surge Blacks Out Northeast, Hitting Cities In 8 States and Canada; Midday Shutdowns Disrupt Millions

New York Times, August 15, 2003: The Blackouts of ’65 and ’77 Became Defining Moments in the City’s History

CBC: The ‘Great Northeastern Blackout’ of 1965

CBC: 2003: The great North America blackout

Department of Energy Emergency Situation Reports: http://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/Emergency_sit_rpt.aspx

List of major power outages: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_power_outages

 

 

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Is Emergency Management Ready for a Long-Term Blackout?

Is Emergency Management in the U.S. – and in your community – prepared for a long-term loss of the electric grid?

Here is FEMA’s definition of Emergency Management: it is the managerial function charged with creating the framework within which communities reduce vulnerability to hazards and cope with disasters. Emergency Management protects communities by coordinating and integrating all activities necessary to build, sustain, and improve the capability to mitigate against, prepare for, respond to, and recover from threatened or actual natural disasters, acts of terrorism, or other man-made disasters.

That is a good mouthful of federalspeak for “the people holding the (mostly empty) bag when the grid goes down.”

Is Emergency Management Ready for a Long-Term Blackout?One of the strengths of modern Emergency Management is its flexibility. Most towns can handle a structure fire or an auto accident with their own resources. But when something larger happens, like a tornado, a fiery multi-car pile up with multiple casualties, the system expands and resources are brought in from neighboring towns. And in a larger scale disaster, like a hurricane or earthquake, resources can be brought in from the federal government and agencies all over the state or country. So, in theory (and in practice) Emergency Management can handle disasters small and large.

But this strength is also a critical weakness: What if the disaster was of national scale and so there were no outside resources available to help your town? What if you were on your own?

Two recent articles in Emergency Management publications discuss such scenarios. The first was an article in Fire Engineering by Ken Chrosniak: Electric Power Blackout: The Power of One. The second was an article by Garrison Wells published by Emergency Management Magazine: Threat of Massive Grid Shutdown Increasing in Face of Disasters. If you are an emergency manager, you really need to read these articles: You and your jurisdiction are not prepared for a long-term blackout.

So let’s do a quick tabletop exercise.

Scenario: A massive solar flare (coronal mass ejection) has taken down the majority of the electric grid in the United States. Many of the extra-high-voltage (EHV) transformers have been damaged and it may be months – or longer – before power is restored. All you have is whatever resources your town or jurisdiction currently has on hand (disasters are, after all, “come as you are”). If you want to spice it up, assume this is in the worst season for your area, e.g., winter in New England or summer in Texas. Because this is a national scale disaster, you can’t count on any aid from the outside for the foreseeable future – perhaps months. The cavalry is not coming.

Exercise Objectives: (Oh, I forgot to mention, you’re going to fail this tabletop and half the population or more of your town will die – but that’s okay. This is only a drill. The purpose of a drill is to harvest the lessons learned and do better next time – or when it happens for real. The vast majority of towns, states and even the federal government have never drilled this scenario.)

The objectives are:

  1. Determine what resources and capabilities you have
  2. Determine the obvious problems your town/jurisdiction will face
  3. Think about things that could be done prior to an event to prepare and mitigate

The first objective is fairly simple. You probably already have a good idea of what your town’s resources are. But, your existing resources and capabilities may be less than you think. Will all your resources show up to work if their families are in jeopardy from a national catastrophe? Also, even if most of them do, remember that all you have is what you have in town now. fuel, medical supplies, number of cops and firemen. Nothing else is available.

For the second objective, I’m not even going to throw in any injects. The facts are bad enough. When the grid goes down for a long period of time, we can briefly broad-brush the challenges to a town as follows:

  • Long-term interruption of power
    • People will be without heat/AC.
    • People will be without refrigeration.
    • People will be without the ability to perform basic things like cooking or boiling water.
    • People will be without basic sanitation and, hence, at risk for diseases.
    • People may be without transportation immediately (EMP damage) or soon (lack of fuel).
    • Most, if not all, forms of communication will be disrupted.
    • Critical backup generators will soon run out of fuel.
  • Long-term interruption of supply chain
    • Food will stop.
    • Fuel will stop.
    • Medicine and medical supplies to pharmacies will stop.
    • All products, parts and supplies will stop.
  • Long-term interruption of essential services
    • Water service will stop.
    • Sewer service will stop.
    • Fire, EMS, and police will be unable to respond (for lack of fuel, personnel and communications).
    • Medical services will be severely disrupted or unavailable.
  • Collapse of law and order (temporary or permanent)
    • The police will not have the manpower, communications, or transportation to provide security for the community.
    • Desperate people will resort to looting, burglary, robbery, or any means necessary to get food and water.
    • It is unlikely that federal help is “on the way” anytime soon
    • Many local governments will quickly become ineffective.
  • Starving refugees arriving from urban areas
    • Even if, miraculously, you live in a community that is prepared and has a plan to attack the above challenges, look to your nearest urban areas—refugees will soon be forced to flee the cities. Any plan for a town’s survival will have to address how to humanely handle desperate refugees while protecting the town and maintaining law and order.
    • Town borders will have to be monitored and protected.
    • Town assets will have to be guarded from looters/criminals.

When you really think about the implications of each of the items above – and begin to put this operating picture together, it is grim. And, local Emergency Management will be holding the bag. Nobody higher is coming in to become the incident commander. The National Guard can’t come to every town (and they have their own problems – guardsman are going to have a tough choice when asked to report to duty when their families are in danger.)

Let’s take one of the above problems as an example: Desperate people will resort to looting, burglary, robbery, or any means necessary to get food and water.

So, you have a grocery store and a pharmacy in town. Those are going to quickly become targets. How many meals does the average family in your town (and neighboring towns) have in the cupboard? With the supply chain gone and no food coming in, what do you think will happen one week from now when people are out of food? This means you are X number of meals away from anarchy. Can your law enforcement resources handle this?

Is Emergency Management Ready for a Long-Term Blackout?Let’s look at another: Water service will stop.

Most people get water either from “city water” service or a well. Both require electricity. The vast majority of your town will be without their primary water supply. People are going to be at risk for waterborne diseases – if they are lucky enough to even have questionable water to drink.

As you go through and think about the implications of each of the above (and perhaps a few more that you may think of – the above list is not comprehensive) one thing becomes clear. Emergency Management’s dependence on outside resources when the size of the disaster overwhelms the local capabilities has failed us here. We need to be able to depend on ourselves in this worst-case national catastrophe scenario.

It is also clear that for any town or jurisdiction to adequately prepare, mitigate, respond and recover from a long term electric grid outage, we need to do a lot of work beforehand. This brings us to the third objective: what could be done prior to an event to prepare and mitigate?

The answer is a lot.

The answer is not “that could never happen” (because it could) or, “if that happened, there is just no way to be prepared for it” (because that is just patently false). Several members of Congress have been concerned about this vulnerability of the electric grid for years and there are reams of Congressional testimony and federal reports that conclude that this can happen. Moreover, several members of congress advocated in 2012 that communities start a civil defense program and be prepared to fend for themselves in the absence of federal assistance for a prolonged period of time.

It would be great if the federal government took concrete steps to protect the electric grid. Legislative attempts to do so have failed for years to make it out of committee. The companies that own and operate the electric grid are against such legislation – and they have a lot of money to lobby against it.

So, in absence of the federal government taking steps to protect the grid, local Emergency Management must take steps to protect their towns – to prepare, mitigate, respond and recover from a national-scale long-term blackout. This scenario needs to be one of the hazards considered in our “all hazard” comprehensive approach.

Some initial suggested steps.

  1. Every town and jurisdiction should do a tabletop drill with a long-term national blackout scenario (months).
  2. Nobody has a budget for this – you will need community involvement. Starting a Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) or involving your CERT Team if you have one, is a great way to start getting the community involved.
  3. If you can get some public interest, consider starting a non-profit civil defense organization that has this specific mission:

(a) To educate and promote individual, family, and town preparedness for disasters;

(b) To provide disaster assistance and relief to town residents in the event of a disaster; and

(c) To educate and provide planning and resource options to the town for preparation and response to a “worst-case,” long-term catastrophe affecting the town.

Some members of Congress attempted to pass a resolution advocating that communities and their citizens do this. While House Resolution 762 (112th Congress) may have died in committee along with other legislation to protect the electric grid, a good idea does not need to pass congress to be a good idea.

Is Emergency Management Ready for a Long-Term Blackout? You will have to answer this question for your own town or jurisdiction. After all, it will be local Emergency Management that owns this problem. It will be too late for you to figure it out once the lights go off.

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